Why companies need to rethink their strategies and what risks they face
A new study by the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung shows that Chinese AI models like DeepSeek or Alibaba are rapidly conquering the European developer market. In Germany, their market share on the developer platform OpenRouter rose to 61 percent in 2026. The reason for this is extremely low prices with virtually equivalent performance. However, experts warn of new digital dependencies, data security risks, and high switching costs for European companies.
Key facts at a glance:
- Steep increase: Chinese AI models now account for 61% of token consumption on OpenRouter in Germany (58% across the EU) – last year it was only about 15% across the EU.
- Success factors: The main reasons for the boom are the massive price advantage compared to US models, the significantly improved performance, and the ability to locally customize open-source models.
- High risks: Experts warn of costly changes (vendor lock-in), cybersecurity risks with system updates, and a one-sided dependence on directives from Beijing.
- Action recommendation: Companies should plan for alternative strategies early on. The policy recommends that more transparency be demanded and that own European AI alternatives be specifically promoted.
Chinese AI models are surprisingly fast gaining traction in Europe and already displacing established US competitors on important developer platforms. This is evidenced by the current study „China’s AI Sweeps Into Europe“ by the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit.
According to the evaluations of the authors Valentin Weber (DGAP) and Céline Nauer, Chinese models accounted for 61 percent of token consumption on the OpenRouter platform in Germany in July and August 2026. In the EU, the figure was 58 percent, compared to meager 15 percent the previous year. The study is based on usage and download data from OpenRouter and Hugging Face. Since these platforms are primarily used by software developers and companies, the analysis does not, however, cover the end consumer market (such as direct use of the ChatGPT app), but does show a significant trend reversal in professional software development.
The reasons for the boom and the emerging risks
According to the study authors, the success of providers like DeepSeek or Alibaba is primarily due to their pricing structure. The Chinese alternatives offer comparable performance at a fraction of the cost of American models. Moreover, they are often easy to download, customize, and run on their own servers.
Despite these advantages, experts see significant risks for the European location:
- High switching costs: Anyone who deep-fits their software architecture to a specific model will find it difficult to get rid of it later and at a high cost.
- Uncertain cybersecurity: Even with locally operated models, companies remain dependent on future software updates and their source code.
- Asymmetrical market: While European developers are open to Chinese technology, Western systems remain virtually completely blocked in China and Hong Kong.
What politics and business need to do now
According to the authors, European companies should quickly explore alternative options to remain operational in the event of sudden restrictions on use, whether through decisions in Washington or Beijing.
At the same time, the study calls for a change in EU policy: stronger awareness-raising about security risks and a transparency obligation for software providers regarding the AI models used are required. Although the cheap models from Far East are helping to break the dominance of US tech giants in the short term, Europe needs its own competitive alternatives in the long term in order to avoid falling directly into the next digital monopoly trap.